I just read this article by F. William Engdahl, "China's Hidden Economic Time Bomb." No doubt there will be consequences to the one child only policy in China; however, I question some of this analysis. For one thing, I consider it a good thing that car sales are slowing. If everyone in China has a car, that's going to fuel intense competition for limited oil resources. China is also investing in mass public transportation, and that is a far better solution than selling more cars.
Without any reliable population data, it is really impossible to get a good sense of what's happening in China. I know that in the countryside, girls were still being born to families, and despite the government policy of one child only, there were very few families who adhered to this stricture. They just didn't report the birth of girls or more than one child in the family to avoid the tax burden and fines for having more than one child.
These "stateless" children, both boys and girls, receive no benefits from the state. Some attended school under the name of another child who had died. There were stratagems to get around government policy.
China can give these children official status and carry out a true count of the population. Children will have better access to education, and training programs will no doubt spring up across the undeveloped west that is rapidly being connected with the more developed eastern and coastal areas through an extensive new railroad network that has been under construction for several years.
If you remember the great economic impact of the construction of the transcontinental railway across the United States, it is too soon to consider China's economic miracle on the wane.
China has also undertaken a massive effort to provide higher education for its young people. I taught in one of these newly built universities. And there has been a mighty push for all Chinese children to learn English. We haven't begun to see the opportunities this opens up for China in world trade, as well as in the fields of science, technology, and the arts. China will benefit greatly from a better educated populace.
Another factor is retirement age of older people. Today in China retirement age is 50 years for most women, and 55 years for most men. China could implement policies to extend the retirement age, and that can give it a greater work force as well, at least long enough to implement other policies.
Actually the U.S. is China's greatest single market, and the trade war Trump has been waging against China probably accounts for the slowdown this year. However, corruption continues in China; it has always been a part of the culture. Corruption waxes and wanes over the centuries, but never goes away completely. And that is also a factor on the negative side that could slow down economic growth.
After living in China for four years from 2007 to 2011, I have been reading extensively about it, and studying the politics, history and culture of China. My interest in this great country was awakened by living there, and although it's true that I have a love/hate relationship with China, just like I do with my own country (albeit for different reasons), I know that it is quite difficult for even China experts in the West to get a fully accurate sense of what is happening in China.
